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Why is it so cold in the UK at the moment?
Cold air from the Arctic has pushed over the UK. This is caused by a high-pressure weather system over Greenland and Iceland moving eastward towards another high-pressure system over Russia. The result is a mass of cold air in between being squeezed southwards and over the UK. Weather warnings from the Met Office are currently in place for northern UK until Thursday.
Is this weather unusual?
Not this time of year. Met Office chief meteorologist Steve Willington said: “Daytime temperatures [are] Over the coming days, many places will be left with only a few degrees above freezing, with overnight temperatures dropping to -10C or lower in isolated places. Although below average, these temperatures are not that unusual for this time of year.”
Average daily December temperatures have ranged between 3C and 5C in recent decades and natural variability in the weather means spells above and below average. The UK has been slightly cooler than average, while southern Europe has been warmer than average.
The cold weather comes as a surprise as it follows a very warm autumn in the UK, the third warmest on record. “It’s changed pretty quickly from a mild fall, so it’s getting really cold,” Ollie Claydon said. “But there is nothing record-breaking or unusual about this cold snap at this time of year.”
Is there a connection to climate change?
No. Climate scientists say “climate is what you expect, weather is what you get”. Colder conditions are expected in winter, with weather varying from week to week above and below average. For example, the first half of December in 2012 was even colder than now, but much milder weather in the second half of the month meant that it ended up being average overall.
Does the cold weather indicate that global warming is not as serious as thought?
Of course not. It’s winter now. The evidence that human emissions of greenhouse gases cause dangerous warming of the atmosphere is equivocal.
Professor Lizzie Condon, Met Office climate scientist, said: “As our climate warms, our winters in the UK are getting warmer on average, leading to a reduction in the number and intensity of the cold extremes we already experience.”
“This trend will continue under further global warming, but the UK can still expect to experience cold spells of weather, such as we are seeing now, due to the natural variability of British weather,” she said. “Below freezing days, known as snow days, will still be possible in the future although they will be rare.”
In fact it is likely that 2022 will be the UK’s warmest year on record. Mike Kendon at the National Climate Information Center said: “Although it is too early to make guarantees, the distinct potential for a record warm year in the first 11 months of 2022 has been established.” Only an extremely cold December could prevent the overall record, he said.
“All of the top 10 warmest years on record for the UK have occurred since 2002, which is a clear indicator of our warming climate,” said Candon. “Human-induced climate change has increased the likelihood of extreme heat seen in July this year, but this year has also seen sustained heat resulting in a year challenging the previous record set in 2014.”
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