War risk emphasizes energy security | Daily News Byte

Russia’s war in Ukraine has been going on for more than nine months, and Moscow recently carried out drone attacks on Ukrainian power plants and hydraulic infrastructure. At least 30 percent of Ukraine’s power plants were affected, causing blackouts across the country that affected more than 4 million people.

To make matters worse, winter is fast approaching. In the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, temperatures have already dropped to 0oC at night. Due to severe power shortages, many Ukrainians suffer from the cold and are at risk of freezing.

Kyiv Mayor Vitaly Klitschko called for help from abroad to help Ukrainians survive the long winter.

If Taiwan was in a similar war situation, how would its power system cope? Ukraine’s energy self-sufficiency is almost 65 percent, while Taiwan’s is less than 2 percent. Taiwan is heavily dependent on imported coal and natural gas for electricity generation.

The government’s energy transition plan sets the goal that by 2025, half of the country’s electricity will come from gas-fired power plants, one-third from coal-fired power plants, and one-fifth from renewable energy sources.

Storing liquefied natural gas (LNG) has never been easy, as the gas must be stored in special facilities. For now, local LNG reserves can only last the nation for seven to 14 days.

If Taiwan were to be embargoed, meaning that LNG could not be imported, the gas-fired plants would not be able to produce power. In such a scenario, Taiwan’s power would be cut in half even before the enemy attacked. The government would have to immediately rationalize the government.

Although burning gasoline and coal are more harmful to the environment, they are easier to store. Taiwan’s gasoline reserves would last about five months, while coal reserves would last more than a month.

However, in order for these fuels to produce electricity, generating units must be installed. Today, only two oil-fired units at Taiwan Power Co’s (協和電廠) Hsieh-ho Power Plant in Keelung are still in operation, but they are scheduled to be decommissioned and replaced with gas-fired ones.

Most of Taiwan’s coal-fired power plants will also be decommissioned soon.

Using air pollution as an excuse, a number of mayors and county commissioners have called on the Ministry of Economic Affairs to dismantle failing coal-fired power plants. If all their units were no longer in use, it would be impossible to generate electricity during the war even if coal remained available.

Would nuclear power be a better option? Because of its small size, a nuclear fuel rod is easy to store, and reserves can be kept for as long as a year.

Half of Ukraine’s electricity came from nuclear power before the Russian invasion, in which Russian troops seized the country’s largest nuclear power plant in Zaporozhye. The Ukrainian military must refrain from attacking Russian positions at the power plant, as damaging it could cause a nuclear disaster.

Likewise, Taiwan’s nuclear power plants could be targeted by the enemy, increasing the threat of a nuclear disaster during war.

Since Taiwan has no fossil fuel resources, the government must take urgent measures to establish a renewable energy industry. This is the only way to increase the energy self-sufficiency of the nation.

Furthermore, even if Taiwan were to be blockaded by an enemy, it is unlikely that wind, hydro, and solar power generation would cease to function. These energy sources are quite stable. Also, compared to other types of power plants that require highly skilled manual labor, solar panels and small hydro plants are relatively simple. Everyone should be able to familiarize themselves with the equipment in case war breaks out.

Data from the International Energy Agency show that energy prices have risen sharply due to the war in Ukraine. All of Europe is affected by natural gas and coal shortages, and some countries may have to cut down trees for firewood to survive the winter. European countries will probably be forced to accelerate the development of renewable energy, instead of relying only on fossil fuels.

There is another concern: Taiwan’s electricity generation system is centralized. Judging by the power shortages of the past few years, if one power plant were to be attacked, or the national power grid was targeted and damaged, Taiwan would have a nationwide energy crisis.

Improving the distribution of energy generation and transmission is extremely important, and renewable energy sources are key. If every residential area and community could install solar panels and have self-sustaining energy ready to use, the risk of power outages would be minimized.

Russia’s war in Ukraine taught Taiwan a valuable lesson. The country must optimize fuel security reserves, reduce its reliance on natural gas, and keep enough generating units in reserve in case war breaks out.

More importantly, the government’s energy transition plan must focus on the development of renewable energy, and Taiwan must establish distributed generation and energy storage systems.

In this way, the degree of energy self-sufficiency of Taiwan could be increased and the risk of a complete blackout could be avoided. Taiwan would be able to withstand the war with perseverance.

Sun Wen-lin is a special correspondent for the Environmental Information Center.

Translated by Liu Ji-hung