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With the temperature in cities set to rise in the coming decades, many public and private players in emerging markets are looking to tackle the challenge of extreme heat through technology, sustainable building techniques and the expansion of urban green spaces.
Cities cover only 3% of the Earth’s surface, but currently hold more than half of the world’s population – a figure set to reach 70% by 2050. Urban population growth is predicted to be greatest in emerging markets, with 90% moving to cities. in Asia and Africa, especially in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.
Urbanization tends to accelerate economic growth and opportunity in emerging markets, with cities generating roughly 80% of global GDP. However, it also increases exposure to extreme heat.
Buildings and roads, especially when made of materials such as asphalt, absorb the sun’s heat, making urban areas significantly warmer – a phenomenon known as urban heat islands (UHIs).
A 2021 study published in Natural climate changes found that under high-emissions models, urban areas could warm by more than 4°C by 2100.
An estimated 356,000 people worldwide died from extreme heat in 2019, according to a study last year, and the problem is set to grow unless action is taken.
Urban heat mapping
As OBG reported in June 2020. The Covid-19 pandemic has helped fuel the growth of smart cities, with national and municipal authorities using data collection infrastructure to monitor and limit the spread of the virus. Similar technologies are now being used to map and mitigate climate change in urban spaces.
Microsoft India, in partnership with the Society for Sustainable Environment and Ecological Development, has launched the second phase of an artificial intelligence model to monitor heat waves in July 2021. Previously used to monitor the risk of cyclones and floods in coastal areas, the technology uses satellite imagery and assesses buildings for measuring the risk of heat waves for urban areas and communicating effective interventions to vulnerable populations.
Monitoring emissions in cities can help address UHI. Cities produce 70% of global greenhouse gas emissions, in part due to motorized transport systems and construction, both of which consume large amounts of fossil fuels.
Governments are increasingly working to spread awareness of the dangers posed by warming cities and mitigate the risks.
Founded in 2016, the Global Covenant of Mayors works with city or regional networks, national governments and other partners to combat urban climate change. Its network of more than 12,000 cities worldwide focuses on reducing urban greenhouse gas emissions, a key driver behind UHI.
Economic consequences
Intense urban heat will have significant economic consequences. A 2020 study reported that GDP per capita in South Africa could drop by up to 20% by 2100 as heat puts extra stress on manual laborers working in construction, mining and agriculture.
To protect workers, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have imposed work bans during the summer, limiting outdoor work when temperatures can reach life-threatening highs.
Traditional urban development techniques can also help lower temperatures, especially in the MENA region, where urban centers are designed to moderate the heat.
The historic Sefarine district of Fes, Morocco is as much as 8°C colder than the rest of the city, despite being the most densely populated area. The difference in temperature is mainly due to the narrow, winding streets in almost constant shade, plus the use of porous building materials, such as clay brick and concrete stone.
Building materials play a significant role in generating emissions as well as absorbing heat that causes UHI. With more than half of the world’s building stock expected to be built in the next 30 years – much of it in developing markets – countries can opt for renewable building materials that reflect heat and reduce energy consumption.
In South Africa, for example, low-carbon buildings that meet Green Star standards save an average of 30-40% in energy consumption and emissions.
Greening efforts
Many principles of sustainable urban planning also provide relief for UHI. Green areas help conserve moisture, which cools the surrounding areas. Meanwhile, public transport systems reduce reliance on cars while limiting heat-absorbing road networks.
Sustainable urban development is projected to generate $1.5 trillion in annual business value worldwide by 2030.
Latin America, the second most urbanized region in the world, offers several key case studies for sustainable urban development.
The BiodiverCities 2030 initiative, led by the Colombian government and the World Economic Forum, seeks to encourage the development of cities alongside the growth of nature.
The informal community of Isidro Fabela in Mexico City offers another useful example. Relying on public transportation and using natural gas for energy and recycled materials for home construction have helped reduce household greenhouse gas emissions to about half the average impact in the Mexican capital.
Mexico City is also working to expand its green spaces by planting over 33 million trees and shrubs since 2019 as part of its Green Challenge plan.
With a population of around 2 million, Curitiba in Brazil is considered one of the greenest cities in the world. It features the first bus rapid transit system, which opened in the 1970s, as well as large green spaces, with residents planting more than 1.5m of trees along its roads.
Meanwhile, in Bangkok, Thailand, in November 2022, the city hall announced that it would build 100 or more “pocket parks” over the next three years, improving access to green space and increasing plant coverage.
By Oxford Business Group
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