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If there is one certainty in today’s changing world, it is that the tides will rise and fall. You only need to gaze at the ocean to be reminded of the power of the sea, the backdrop for a wealth of stories, fact and fiction.
Southeast Asia is blessed with an oceanic space, mostly consisting of island or oceanic states – known as mainland or maritime Southeast Asia – in the Indian and Pacific oceans. The region is of increasing interest to academics, who are considering how renewable energy techniques and technologies can be used for the more than 660 million people who live there. These include ocean thermal energy, salinity gradient technologies, wave and tidal energy generation, collectively known as ocean renewable energy (ORE).
“The oceans contain enormous renewable energy potential,” according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), “theoretically equivalent to more than twice the world’s electricity demand.” The 2020 report, “Outlook for Innovation: Ocean Energy Technologies,” concludes that ocean energy could provide “affordable, reliable electricity” for small island developing states, as well as “enhancing drinking water supplies through seawater desalination.” ; probably very attractive for Southeast Asia considering its geographical composition.
In addition, the report said exploitation would create jobs, improve livelihoods and provide other socio-economic benefits, while providing “predictability” in energy supply.
More than a drop in the ocean
However, of all renewable energy sources, ocean-based energy is probably the least advanced, with technologies largely unavailable commercially today, at least not on an industrial scale. In its end-2021 market report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said global policies promoting research and development are needed to achieve further cost reductions and large-scale development.
The IEA said: “Electricity generation from marine technologies increased by 33% in 2020, mainly thanks to Denmark’s 200 MW capacity increase. However, the status of marine energy is still ‘not on track’ as it is far from aligned with the Net Zero scenario’s sustainable annual growth of 33% by 2030, which is not expected to be achieved in the coming years.”
IRENA adds that barriers to technology development remain and include the technology itself, infrastructure, and financial and regulatory issues. Among the infrastructural challenges is the lack of network connectivity, which leads to a significant increase in costs. He adds: “Grids in ocean energy markets can be small and unstable, especially on islands or sparsely populated coastal areas.
However, globally, some countries are managing to address many of these concerns, at least enough for some projects to be successful. IRENA said its 2020 analysis showed the highest concentration of ocean energy technologies being developed in 31 countries, with a large concentration in Europe. With 98% of the total installed ocean energy capacity globally, the main markets were South Korea, France and Canada. “These countries have the largest number of tested, deployed and planned projects, as well as the largest number of project developers and device manufacturers,” it said.
Based on IRENA’s analysis, the global cumulative resource potential ranges from 45,000 TVh to well over 130,000 per year. “Therefore, ocean energy alone has the potential to meet more than twice the global electricity demand,” it said. Tidal energy technologies represent the “majority of global installed ocean energy capacity,” with about 512 MW, of which 501.5 MW is operational tidal power.
Supply and demand, demand, demand
Like a growing list of nations around the world, many in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have committed to reducing their carbon emissions; however, they face challenges unique to their geography, economy, and even socio-political will. By the middle of this decade, ASEAN aims to meet 23% of its primary energy needs through renewable sources, an ambition well on its way to being achieved. But demand is outstripping supply and looks set to do so for the foreseeable future.
A report released by the IEA back in 2019 concluded that energy demand across the region has increased by more than 80% compared to two decades ago, making the need to find alternative energy sources even more critical. IRENA, however, says that countries in Asia and Southeast Asia have tidal potential, but it has not yet been fully tapped and exploited.
The environment – figuratively speaking – has not yet matured enough. “There is a lack of ocean energy networks and umbrella organizations that have the resources and experience to develop regulatory frameworks for ocean energy and discuss potential policies with authorities,” IRENA said in 2020. “In addition, there is often a lack of clarity and information about the permitting process. Strategic government plans and policy mechanisms are still lacking to improve the network, gain investment, support revenue streams and implement marine spatial planning due to the novelty of these technologies.”
However, circumstances may be changing – both in Southeast Asia and around the world – as countries look to improve their sustainable energy portfolios as the impact of climate change and growing energy insecurity become more apparent. ASEAN members, especially Indonesia, Singapore and the Philippines, are taking a much more deliberate approach to green energy than ever before. All are positively encouraging project investments – both technological and infrastructure – by introducing new laws, financing and other financial incentives and creating an attractive environment for foreign investment to promote investment.
Southeast Asia could lead the world in tidal power
As part of that effort to attract international partners, in August 2022 the Philippines’ Department of Energy opened the door to new renewable energy projects with 100% foreign investment, which was originally prohibited by its 1987 Constitution. Speaking at the committee meeting, Energy Minister Rafael Lotilla said the country needs to turn to domestic energy sources in order to secure energy and not be at the mercy of volatile markets.
“We need to address the needs of the industry and, definitely, one of the ways to do that is to open up renewable energy,” he said. “We have to end this over-dependence on oil and oil-based fuels because otherwise we will always experience price volatility.” We would have to invest in solar energy, wind and even newer technologies.” He added that in the long term, the goal will be ocean, heat, hydrogen and offshore wind; but he accepted that regulatory reform is needed and that tidal remains relatively expensive.
The Philippines is not alone in Asia with its renewable and tidal power ambitions. Indonesia is actively pursuing marine energy as part of its long-term renewable ambitions. Marine renewable energy sources have been recognized as part of the state’s renewable energy development plan, making funding available for pilot testing in preparation for full commercialization.
Southeast Asia is big on the energy transition, and tidal power can play a role. Currently, the region relies heavily on fossil fuels and as such is exposed to the vagaries of this increasingly unpredictable market. Renewable energy sources are a big part of the answer, and the region knows it; but it is difficult to get a clear picture of where it stands in renewable energy. It is among the best renewable generators in the world when the market is broken down into sub-categories – such as geothermal and to some extent solar – but lags significantly behind many others.
However, given the undeveloped nature of the sea, especially renewable tidal energy, the region has the potential to be a global powerhouse. To do this, it must ensure that it is focused on attracting foreign interest – bringing with it technical expertise and funding. If it can, Southeast Asia could sail the high seas in a new age of renewable energy.
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