[ad_1]
CNN
–
There are signs that the United Kingdom may be headed for the fall of the Covid-19 wave, and experts say the United States may not be far behind.
The recent rise in Covid-19 cases in England does not appear to be driven by a new coronavirus variant, at least for now, although many are gaining strength in the US and across the pond.
“Typically, what happens in the UK is reflected in the US about a month later. I think that’s what I’m seeing,” said Dr. Tim Spector said.
Spector runs the Zoe Health Study, which uses an app to allow people in the UK and US to Report their daily symptoms. If they start to feel unwell, they do a home Covid-19 test and record the results. It says about 500,000 people are currently logging their symptoms daily to help track epidemic trends.
Spector says the study, which has been running since the days of England’s first lockdown in 2020, has accurately captured the start of each wave, with numbers running about one to two weeks ahead of official government figures.
After seeing a downward trend for the past few weeks, the Zoe study found a 30% increase in reported Covid-19 cases in the past week.
“Our current data certainly shows that this is the beginning of the next wave,” Spector said.
On Friday, that increase was also reflected in official UK government data, although it was not as large as the increase reported by zoe loggers.
Data from the National Health Service shows that after The seven-day average of new cases in England and Wales rose 13% in the week ending September 17 from the previous week, down from almost two months. The seven-day average for hospitalizations rose 17% in the week ended September 19 from the previous week.
Data from UK and US Both align with what is predicted to happen.
“They predicted that we would peak in June to July and then have a month where nothing happened in August and then it would flatten out in August and September and then pick up again in October. So it matches exactly what the modelers are predicting,” Spector said.
The US In , some models have predicted that Covid-19 cases will start to rise again in October and continue to rise through the winter. Experts are optimistic that since most of the population now has some underlying immunity to the coronavirus, this wave will be less deadly than what we saw in previous winters.
It is not clear what is driving the rise in the UK or whether it will last.
“These trends may persist for more than a week or two, or they may not,” said Kevin McConway, emeritus professor of applied statistics at the Open University in Milton Keynes, England.
They say the clearest increase in the breakdown by age is among teenagers, who are around middle school age, and younger adults, who are 25 to 34 years old.
“It wouldn’t be surprising if there was a slight increase in infections as people come back from summer vacation and schools reopen,” McConway said in a statement to the nonprofit Science Media Center. “Even if it is, there’s certainly no clear indication yet that it will continue.”
He’s not the only one who needs to see more data before calling this the start of a new wave.
“The question is, how significant is that increase? Is it, for example, the beginning of something, a new wave, or is it just a temporary blip because of all the gathering around the Queen’s funeral and other events that are going on?” said Dr. Peter Hotez, who is based in Houston, Texas. Co-Director of the Vaccine Development Center at Children’s Hospital.
Another important question will be whether the increase is being made by a new type.
“It’s the worst possible situation. Because historically, when that situation happens in the UK, it’s reflected within weeks in the United States,” Hotez said. “That was true for the alpha wave; That was true for the delta wave; That was true for Omicron and its subvariants.
That’s where the US can catch a break this time.
Rather than new types, Christina Pagel, professor of operational research at University College London, believes cases in the UK are increasing. Due to a combination of decreased immunity and behavioral changes.
Many people in the UK have had several months since their last Covid-19 booster or infection, and government figures show that only 8% of adults aged 50 and over have received the Omicron-specific vaccine since the government launched the fall vaccination campaign in September. School and work have fully resumed after the summer holidays and people are spending more time indoors as the temperatures drop.
Immunity is also declining in the United States, and Americans have also been slow to boost it. According to CDC data, only 35% of those for whom a booster is recommended have one.
The updated boosters in the US are slightly different to the UK boosters. The UK is using vaccines that have been updated to fight the original version of Omicron, which is no longer circulating. US boosters have been updated to combat the BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants, which currently cause infections here and abroad. It is not clear whether strain differences would affect cases or disease severity.
There is a mix of new types – branches of BA.4 and BA.5 – waiting in the wings. They represent only a small proportion of total cases, but some are rising against BA.5, which still dominates transmission.
“It is very likely that this will accelerate the current increase and cause a significant wave in October” in the UK, Pagel told CNN in an email.
Other experts agree with this assessment.
“There has been talk of a set of lineages with relevant mutations, including BA.2.75, BQ.1.1, etc., but none of these are of sufficient frequency in the UK at the moment to cause mutations,” said Nathan Grubaugh, who leads the microbial community at the Yale School of Public Health. studies the epidemiology of diseases, he told CNN in an email.
He says the mix of variants in the UK seems to be the same as in the US, at least for now.
“We are seeing an increase in several respiratory viruses in the US right now, so it is not a stretch to think that a new COVID wave (or waves) will arrive soon,” he wrote.
[ad_2]
Source link
