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Black Friday got off to a muted start in the UK, with home deliveries down around 5% and no increase on the high street.
On Friday morning, the number of transactions handled by Barclaycard Payments, which processes £1 in every £3 spent in the UK, was just 0.7% down on the same period on Black Friday morning a year ago and just under 5%. at pre-epidemic levels.
Meanwhile, delivery demand fell 5% on what is traditionally the busiest shopping day of the year, according to delivery technology group Metapac.
According to analysis firm Springboard, the number of shoppers increased by around 5% last year, but the increase was much lower than hoped, as compared to last year when fears surrounding the Omicron variant of Covid were in high streets and shopping centres.
The number of shoppers was still well below pre-pandemic levels – an average of 15% below 2019 and down just over 30% in central London.
Diane Wehrle, Springboard’s director of insights, said shopper numbers were “encouraging – not out of scale but not a disaster”.
She said shoppers are more careful about their spending and therefore more likely to want to pick something up in person – suggesting that overall trade may be worse than the footfall figures suggest. She said: “It’s a tough trading situation for retailers and it’s going to be a tough Christmas.”
Mark Patican, Head of Barclaycard Payments, said: “Our data shows that Black Friday is off to a steady start this year despite the challenging economic backdrop.”
Analysts suggested that spending in a US-inspired discount event had spread further across the week as households prepared for World Cup games for Wales and England on Friday.
Barclayscard said transaction volume in the week before Black Friday was up 3.5% on the previous year.
Petican said: “With the England and Wales matches on Monday this week, the feel-good factor in the run-up to the World Cup has boosted retail and hospitality. We also see Black Friday discounts at the beginning of every year, so while today is the main event, many retailers have started their deals earlier in the month.
The picture remained unclear by Friday evening, with Nationwide Building Society saying its customers had bought 8% more by 2pm on Black Friday than in 2021 and a third more than in 2020, when the pandemic cut spending.
Mark Nalder, director of payments strategy at Nationwide, said: “Early indications are that this Black Friday will be the busiest shopping day of the year. Despite cost of living pressures, transactions are already 7% up on last year.
Analysts suggested that Wales and England’s World Cup matches on Friday could dampen spending, as delivery fears remain as a result of a Royal Mail strike this week and next.
Forecasters are divided on how the Black Friday period will play out, given many uncertainties, including the amount of spare cash for working families with rising energy costs due to mild weather in many parts of the country.
The volume of items purchased is expected to decrease. Analysts at GlobalData estimate that Britons will increase spending by 2.1% to £22.62bn over the two-week Black Friday period, which runs from November 22 to December 5, after inflation.
The Center for Economics and Business Research think tank has warned of “Dark Friday” as a cost of living crisis, combined with warnings that discounts are often more generous at other times of the year and the threat of a Royal Mail strike, hit trade.
He says: “This year, as people have less disposable income to spend, surveys show that many households are cutting back on spending.”
Retailers are believed to be underweight with stocks as spending on “big-ticket” items such as furniture has slowed dramatically amid uncertainty about the economy, while fashion retailers have seen lower demand for winter coats and knitwear amid a mild start to autumn.
Tom Forbes at Metapack said: “We expect Black Friday discounting to go deep into December as retailers continue to shift excess stock and consumers look to spread their Christmas spending over a few weeks rather than just a few days.”
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