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It was one of the most famous soundbites of the Brexit campaign. In a debate on the economic impact of leaving the EU, a heckler in Newcastle shouted at a university professor, “It’s your bloody GDP, not ours”. As Rishi Sunak will soon discover, many Britons still feel the same way.
Conservative Party strategists, who are eyeing the winter of 2024 for the next election, want, against all odds, to pull off a fifth consecutive victory. The hope is that inflation returns to single digits and the recession is short and shallow.
In the 1992 election Norman Lamont, then chancellor, announced a “green shoot” of recovery; On polling day, the Tories defied all expectations and swept to power. Sunak will try to do the same in 2024.
But claims of improved figures will not attract voters. What they care about is what you might call a “clear economy” — one that actually touches people, as opposed to a data-driven economy. Sunk needs to focus on the general state and mood of Britain: does the country feel more prosperous than at its lowest economic point (ie: now), are high streets improving, are job opportunities plentiful? And are public services working well?
If elections are to be held in the next six months, the answer to all these questions will be negative. Public services are crumbling, a wave of strikes has returned and high streets are filled with boarded-up shops. The mood is miserable. No story can overcome what people see and feel.
Advancing this transparent economy should be Sunak’s priority over the next two years. What happens in the real economy is out of the hands of most Tories. Energy prices will be most affected by events in Ukraine.
But the health service is different. The pressure on hospital beds and A&E services is so intense that ambulances cannot get away to attend heart attack patients for an hour or more after their emergency call, a clear sense that the NHS is broken. It’s not for lack of money: Chancellor Jeremy Hunt pledged an extra £3.3bn in the Autumn Statement, on top of half a billion already announced to tackle serious problems.
Sunak has installed Steve Barclay, one of his closest colleagues, to unblock the post-pandemic NHS backlog. Patricia Hewitt, the former Labor health secretary, has relied on political divisions to advise the government on integrating health and social care. But the threat of a strike by nurses and ambulance staff over Christmas could worsen the situation. This winter, the best Barclay and Sunac can hope for is survival. By election, they will want the NHS in significantly better shape.
It’s the same story with the court system. The backlog of criminal cases stands at a record 61,000, with the strike compounding the problem. Barristers have now voted — narrowly — to end their industrial action, but tensions remain across the legal sector.
So, also on railways. A rolling strike by train drivers threatens to disrupt the first normal festive season in three years. Mark Harper was installed as transport secretary by Sunak for his more outspoken approach to trade unions and regional mayors. Early signs are positive, but much of the burden to improve this part of the economy clearly rests on their shoulders.
With the nation focused on anything but football, holidays and politics, the Prime Minister hopes to use the next six weeks to find answers to these almost impossible questions. Busy in his Downing Street study, government insiders say he is reading his way through the policy platform.
When he emerges in early 2023, there is no doubt that to deliver a set-piece speech defining “Sunakism,” the clear sense that the country is stagnant, improving, if not in decline, should take center stage. Optimism is one thing, but what the Prime Minister really needs is an achievable plan to improve life in Britain.
sebastian.payne@ft.com
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