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Paul Taylor is a contributing editor at POLITICO.
After six years of chaos and blame since the British people voted to leave the European Union, there are signs that the country is showing an unexpected burst of common sense in its approach to the bloc.
In his first week in office, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak – himself a Brexiter – has sent clear signals that he wants more constructive relations with Brussels and Paris, and wants to avoid a trade war with Britain’s biggest economic partner.
The nationalistic bombast of former prime minister Boris Johnson and his successor Liz Truce’s pursuit of a Brexit dividend has wreaked havoc on the economy. Instead, they both give way to sudden bursts of pragmatism, as Sunak looks for practical solutions to deal with problems.
This change in outlook may be partly due to the realization that Europe needs to stay united in the face of a threat to its common security from Russian President Vladimir Putin – although that hasn’t stopped Johnson from bragging about how he’s supposedly liberated from leaving the EU. . The United Kingdom will be more supportive of Ukraine than France or Germany.
It may also be due to the dire economic crisis Britain is in after the collapse of Truce’s short-lived experiment for Singapore-on-the-Thames. Or, perhaps, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s hard line on any EU deal with the UK has had a serious impact. As may be the shift in British public opinion, which now thinks leaving the bloc was a mistake by a margin of 56 percent to 32 percent.
For whatever reason, it’s a welcome start.
In just three weeks, Sunak has signed an EU defense initiative to make it easier to move armed forces around the continent, he has worked to improve Britain’s relationship with Ireland, and he has created political space for a possible compromise on the vexed issue of trade. With Northern Ireland, which has strained relations with Brussels since the UK’s exit from the EU.
In their first meeting, Sunak told United States President Joe Biden that he wanted a negotiated settlement on the Northern Ireland Protocol by next April – the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Peace Agreement. So, the constant pressure from Washington is also starting to pay off.
The prime minister has also sought to thaw frosty relations with France, seizing on an agreement with Paris to prevent migrants crossing the Channel in small boats from northern France. Europe’s only two nuclear powers have now agreed to hold their first bilateral summit since 2018 early next year, with a focus on strengthening defense cooperation.
To be fair, Truce took a symbolic first step towards reconciliation by agreeing to attend the first meeting of the European Political Community last month, after saying “the jury is still out” on whether Macron was a friend or foe of the UK. The geopolitical bloc was dreamed up by Macron to bring together the entire European family — except for Russia and Belarus.
What’s more, the flow of Europe-bashing rhetoric from Conservative ministers has almost dried up – at least for now. Suddenly, it’s back in fashion to make nice with neighbors to make sure they don’t switch off the lights in the UK by cutting energy exports if supplies get tight this winter.
One of the most striking signs of this new meekness was the contrite tone adopted by Northern Ireland Minister Steve Baker, once the most hardline of Brexit hardliners. “In my own determination and struggle to get the UK out of the European Union I know I have had a lot of inconvenience and pain and difficulty,” he recently told Ireland’s RTÉ radio. “Some of our actions were not very respectful of Ireland’s legitimate interests. And I want to do it right. ”
Meanwhile, encouragingly, Sunac is reportedly considering vetoing a bill by ousted Brexit ideologue Jacob Rees-Mogg to review, amend or automatically repeal 2,400 retained EU laws, standards and regulations by the end of 2023 – a A huge bureaucratic exercise that has crippled business. And offended almost everyone. The Prime Minister now seems receptive to requests from business to give the review more time and avoid a regulatory vacuum.
A bonfire of EU rules will inevitably fuel fresh trade tensions with Brussels – and come at a time when Britain’s independent fiscal watchdog, the Office of Budget Responsibility, has confirmed the growth-slicing damage imposed by Brexit.
This is not the end of Britain’s shocking breakdown with the bloc. Earlier this week, Sunac dismissed reports that senior government figures were considering a Swiss-style relationship with the EU to ensure frictionless trade, highlighting how neuralgic the issue remains. He promised there would be no alignment with EU rules on his watch.
To paraphrase Churchill, it may not be the beginning of the end either. But that, perhaps, is the end of the beginning.
Puncturing the illusion of an unfettered fiscal paradise driven by borrowing without new revenue has had a serious impact on the UK – offering Sunac a political window of opportunity to begin mending EU relations. After all, the Conservative Party can’t afford another Prime Minister after Theresa May, Johnson and Truss, can it?
But beyond the conciliatory tone, the real test lies ahead.
Any compromise with the EU on the Northern Ireland Protocol would face Sunk with the hard-line Protestant Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).
As the province remains part of the EU single market under the Withdrawal Agreement, any such deal would oblige Northern Ireland to include some customs checks on goods coming from Great Britain – even if these were reduced from the original plan. It is also bound to include the role of the Court of Justice of the European Union as the final arbiter of EU law. Both are anathema to the DUP.
But securing such an agreement would at least open the door to a calmer, more cooperative and sustainable relationship between London and Brussels.
that Sunak may be inherited.
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