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The international submarine cable sector is booming. Today, more than 450 submarine cables carry about 95% (or more, this percentage is disputed and constantly debated) of the total traffic of international telecommunications services, together with the increasing data traffic generated by hyperscale cloud companies and large streaming content providers. As a result, more and more new submarine systems are either being deployed or planned to meet the insatiable demand for greater capacity, scale and range. The Earth is already covered by more than 1.5 million miles of underwater fiber-optic cables, living proof of the whimsical movie maxim “if you build it, they will come.”
A recent industry report, 2022 Interconnection Geography Update, by Patrick Christian, senior manager of telecommunications market research and consultancy TeleGeography, provides the latest information on “submarine cable landings, growth and trends of intra-European networks and growth and trends of networks connecting to Europe”. For example, data reveals that as of 2017, connectivity between Africa and Europe was at around 80% of total potential capacity. The difference between North and South Africa’s international connections is noticeable: North Africa’s international connectivity to Europe is very close to 100%, but sub-Saharan Africa’s connectivity to Europe has fallen to around 60% of total potential capacity.
The TeleGeography survey also points to Europe’s increasing importance as a communications hub, which is more than can be said for Brexit Britain. Earlier this month, the Republic of Ireland, in search of its own Gateway to Europe Strategy in relation to submarine cable systems and positioning itself as a “key international connectivity hub”, marked the completion of the IRIS high-speed submarine cable system. It is the first Irish submarine cable not connected to the UK and therefore indicates the UK’s reduced status after leaving the EU. The Irish government has ambitions to be a hub for connectivity between North America, northern and southern Europe and the rest of the world, and sees the IRIS cable as a catalyst for “continued and expanded investment”.
TeleGeography’s latest submarine cable map also shows that continued growth in the submarine cable sector will continue to boom, with more than $10 billion to be invested in 2022-2024 (see the chart above).
India and Africa are beginning to compete to be key global telecommunications hubs
Meanwhile, elsewhere, India, which will overtake China to become the most populous country on the planet in 2023, is also expanding its involvement in undersea cable systems and plans to become a key communications hub in South Asia. To this end, Reliance Jio, the largest provider of 4G digital services and mobile broadband in the subcontinent, is set to launch the next-generation India-Asia-Express (IAKS) undersea cable system in Hulhumale, Maldives. IAX consists of 12 cable landings in five countries, with a main channel running from Tuas (Singapore) to Mumbai, with branches to Chennai, Matara (Sri Lanka), Satun (Thailand) and Morib (Malaysia).
Meanwhile, the India-Europe-Express (IEKS) system connects Mumbai to Milan, via Savona in Italy, and includes additional stops in the Middle East and Africa (Oman, Djibouti, Saudi Arabia and Egypt) as well as in the Mediterranean, from disembarkation in France, Italy and Greece. Later plans call for a connection to the US East Coast. Between them, IEKS and IAKS will form the largest undersea cable system on the planet and will provide at least 200 Tbit/s of capacity and enable bandwidth services of up to 100 Gbit/s.
At the same time, the 2Africa consortium, comprising China Mobile International, Meta, MTN GlobalConnect, Orange, STC, Telecom Egypt, Vodafone and West Indian Ocean Cable Company (VIOCC), continues to build on its planned 46 sites. First announced in May 2020, the 2Africa submarine cable system together with its ‘Pearls’ extension will connect Africa, Europe and Asia by 2024 and provide international high-speed connectivity to around 3 billion people, or around 36% of the global population. Telecom Egypt, in partnership with Meta, has just announced the first landing in Egypt, at Ras Ghareb on the Red Sea. The cable will next land in Port Said, providing access to the Mediterranean Sea.
It’s still going. EKSA Infrastructure, which already owns more than 70,000 miles of fiber optic network in 32 countries, announced that it will build a new, dedicated open cable landing station (CLS) in Mazara del Vallo on the island of Sicily, Italy, to increase its landing and backhaul capacity . EKSA’s is the largest dedicated digital infrastructure platform connecting Europe and North America and its network connects 300 cities. Its submarine cable routes include three transatlantic cables, one of which is the lowest link between Europe and North America. Mazara CLS will enhance submarine cable services to and from Asia, the Middle East and Africa.
Vulnerability is a concern in times of international tension
On the surface (if you’ll excuse the pun) it all looks very encouraging, but geopolitics is rearing its ugly head everywhere at the moment, not only with Russia’s unprovoked and illegal invasion of Ukraine (and Iran’s shrewd meddling in it) but also by increasingly aggressive China and even more than the usual deranged bullish belligerence coming from North Korea.
Russia has already threatened to shoot down US and European communications satellites covering Ukraine, and submarine cables that carry far more data than satellite fleets are equally (probably more) vulnerable to attack. There have been mysterious cable breaks, such as the recent one off the coast of Scotland that knocked the Shetland Islands off the internet for several days. It happened when the Russian “scientific research vessel” Boris Petrov was nearby.
In recent years, Russia has spent a lot of money and resources developing technology and unmanned underwater vehicles capable of operating at the kinds of depths that NATO countries have long dismissed as irrelevant and not worth much to exploit or defend. Russia and China rely less on undersea cables and, due to sheer size and geographic location, rely more on terrestrial systems. On the other hand, Europe, Great Britain, Japan and South Asia are much more exposed to threats of blackmail or open destructive attacks on their submarine infrastructure.
Before Russia invaded Ukraine in February this year, Britain’s Chief of Defense Staff warned that Putin’s regime had the equipment and political will to cut cables, more or less at will. That’s because, under Putin, decommissioned nuclear submarines have been stripped of rust, fitted with new wooden watertight doors and returned to service as motherships for newer, smaller submarines that are not only difficult to detect, but also maneuverable enough to placing explosive charges on or very close to cables on the seabed for immediate or delayed detonation as and when the Russian state deems it necessary.
China is also doing its part to potentially threaten the west not only by steadily expanding its submarine fleet but also by developing its own submarine cable sector. It offers cable laying at discounted prices, although the bottom line for customers who accept such offers is the likelihood of being kicked off global communications networks if the government (or even a company) does something that would annoy the Chinese government – like broadcasting Winnie the Pooh cartoons, for example.
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