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New electric vehicle models from multiple automakers are beginning to chip away at Tesla’s dominance of the US EV market, according to national vehicle registration data.
But numbers collected by S&P Global Mobility show that Tesla still controlled about 65% of the growing electric vehicle market in the first nine months of this year. And competitors have made gains in the sticker price range below $50,000, where Tesla barely competes.
From 2018 to 2020, Tesla has about 80% of the EV market. Its share fell to 71% in 2021 and continues to decline, said Stephanie Brinley, an S&P associate director.
“Tesla’s position is changing as new, more affordable options emerge, offering equal or better technology and production build,” S&P Global Mobility said in a statement Tuesday. “As consumer choice and consumer interest in EVs grows, Tesla’s ability to maintain a dominant market share will be challenged in the future.”
According to S&P, electric vehicles have gained 2.4 percentage points of US market share this year, growing to 5.2% of all light vehicle registrations. Of the 525,000 electric vehicles registered in the first nine months of the year, about 65%, or 340,000, were Teslas, S&P said.
Despite its smaller market share, Tesla will continue to see its growth as consumer interest increases, Brinley said. “The EV market in 2022 is a Tesla market, and it will continue to be as long as competitors depend on production capacity,” he said.
The shortage of computer chips and other components has stopped many competitors such as Ford, General Motors, Hyundai, Kia and Volkswagen from operating factories at full capacity to meet demand.
Tesla also faces competition at the higher end of the market from BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Audi, Polestar, Rivian, Lucid and others.
S&P said there are 48 EV models on sale in the US currently, and it expects that to grow to 159 by the end of 2025.
Tesla plans to introduce its Cybertruck pickup next year, and a new Roadster at an unspecified date, but otherwise its 2025 light-vehicle model lineup will be the same as it is today, S&P said. The company plans to deliver some electric semis to PepsiCo on Thursday.
S&P also found that consumers who bought battery-electric vehicles so far this year mostly owned Honda and Toyota vehicles before making the switch. Both companies have fuel-efficient internal combustion and hybrid models, but have been slow to release EVs in the U.S. Toyota has just one model, while Honda won’t until 2024.
Tesla’s Model Y small SUV and Model 3 small sedan are the top 2 SUVs, accounting for more than half of all electric vehicle registrations, Brinley said. Ford’s Mustang Mach-E was third, followed by two more Teslas, the Model S sedan and X SUV. Rounding out the top 10 EVs are the Chevrolet Bolt sedan and SUV, Hyundai Ioniq 5, Kia EV6, Volkswagen ID.4 and Nissan Leaf.
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