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When Russian airstrikes hit Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure in mid-November, the lights went out in Moldova as well. A subsequent bombardment in early December similarly left parts of Moldova temporarily in the dark. Russia’s infrastructure bombing campaign has escalated the energy crisis in Ukraine’s tiny neighbor and highlighted structural weaknesses. Europe must now act urgently to keep Moldova’s lights on, while supporting the long-term path to greater energy resilience.
Since independence in 1992, Moldova has relied almost entirely on electricity produced from Russian gas. Moldova produced around 10% of its electricity needs domestically, while 20% was imported from Ukraine and the remaining 70% was generated by the MGRES Cuciurgan power plant in Transnistria, an unrecognized breakaway region of Moldova that has been under Russian control since the 1990s.
The Kremlin has used its bottleneck in Moldova’s gas supply to pressure Moldovan authorities into political concessions. The most notable recent example of this trend was Moscow’s request in 2021 to adjust Moldova’s Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) with the European Union in exchange for a new gas contract on more favorable terms.
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Moldova’s current energy crisis began in October 2022, when Gazprom cut Moldova’s gas imports by 30 percent in an attempt to squeeze the country’s pro-European government. The resulting shortage of electricity led the Transnistrian authorities to reduce the supply of electricity from the Cuciurgan power plant to Moldova by 73%. The effect was immediate. A draft document presented to Western leaders in November showed Moldova was experiencing a 200 percent increase in electricity prices and 34 percent inflation, forcing the average Moldovan to spend up to 75 percent of their income on energy services.
After Russian missiles began targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure on October 10, Ukraine was forced to suspend all electricity exports to Moldova. Romania reacted quickly by allowing Moldova to import electricity at a capped price, while Romania itself subsidized the difference between the Romanian spot price. Currently, 90% of Moldova’s domestic electricity demand is met by Romania.
While electricity imports from Romania continue to sustain Moldova, the main vulnerability of Moldova’s electricity system remains connectivity. Moldova has a single high-voltage line of 400 kV, which runs from the Romanian border town of Isacce through Transnistria. Any energy imported from Romania must be channeled through the separatist region. Local energy experts believe that Moldova’s reliance on a single high-voltage line poses significant risks. Any accident or act of sabotage would leave Moldova exposed to prolonged blackouts.
Only Transnistria is not immune to the escalating energy crisis. After Ukraine suspended electricity imports to Moldova, Transnistrian leaders announced that their gas deficit would reach 40% in November. The two largest gas consumers in Transnistria, the Ribnica cement plant and the nearby Metallurgical plant, were forced to cease operations.
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Moldova has an immediate short-term need for direct financial support from the EU to offset rising energy costs. The European Union recently pledged 250 million euros during the visit of the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, to Chisinau. This financial support will be divided into 40% grants, 40% loans and 20% budget support.
Such financial support is welcome, but more is needed. French President Emmanuel Macron’s pledge of 100 million euros announced at the November platform to support Moldova in Paris is another positive step, but Moldova will need constant funding to continuously purchase electricity on the European spot market.
While the immediate focus is on solving the current energy crisis, European policymakers can and should invest in Moldova’s long-term energy security. This support should include support for the accelerated construction of the 400kV Vulcanesti-Chisinau transmission line, which would allow electricity imports from Romania to completely bypass the Cuciurgan power plant.
This is now possible thanks to the synchronization of the Ukrainian and Moldovan power grids with the continental European grid, a step taken earlier this year in an effort to move away from the Soviet unified national power grid. Without power grid synchronization, Moldova would be forced to construct expensive “back-end” power transformers to convert imported electricity from the European Union to meet the parameters of the CIS power grid.
In the long term, policymakers should prioritize the construction of a high-voltage transmission line that runs from the Suceava substation in Romania to Balti in northern Moldova. Former Moldovan President Igor Dodon previously proposed the project together with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Moldova’s Moldelektrika and Romania’s Transelektrika, but the initiative has largely stalled. The revival of the Suceava-Balti transmission line project would indicate the EU’s interest in supporting Moldova’s long-term energy security.
The consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine are already being felt beyond Ukraine’s borders. Every missile that lands on Ukraine exacerbates Moldova’s energy crisis and pushes the country closer to the brink. Europe must do everything in its power to help Moldova maintain power this winter, and it should also look for ways to move toward a more resilient state of energy security in the years to come.
Alexander St. Leger is an analyst at the Center for Advanced Defense Studies. He was previously a scholar of the American Fulbright program in Moldova and Romania. You can follow him on Twitter @AlekStLeger.
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The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff or its supporters.
The Eurasian Center mission is to advance transatlantic cooperation in promoting stability, democratic values and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the west to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the east.
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Image: A BM-21 Grad multi-barrel rocket launcher of the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade of Ukraine fires at Russian positions in Donbass, Ukraine. (Photo by Laurel Chor / SOPA Images/Sipa USA)
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