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PROVIDENCE — Twenty months after the Climate Act was signed into law, Rhode Island is already in danger of missing its first major emissions reduction goal.
This week, the Executive Coordinating Council on Climate Change (EC4), a supergroup of government-level agencies that lead climate policy, released its draft report on emissions reductions, indicating that even if the country adopted some aggressive climate policy measures, it could miss its 2030 goal of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by as much as half a million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMTCO2e).
According to the Climate Act, the state is obliged to reduce GHG emissions to 45% below 1990 levels by 2030. A decarbonization analysis by the Acadia Center and the Rocky Mountain Institute projects emissions in 2030 to be 7.69 MMTCO2e, compared to a 1990s baseline of 12.48 MMTCO2e.
Part of the law also requires EC4 to issue a number of reports and strategies on meeting the law’s emission reduction targets.
“This is a very simple, preliminary model that confirms that Rhode Island is moving in the right direction, but not quite to the point where we can be confident of our success,” the authors of the state’s GHG emissions reduction plan wrote.
The actual outcomes could be significantly worse if the state does not manage. Final projections assume that state leaders will follow through on many of the final recommendations contained in the report.
Some of the recommendations are happening right now. Legislature passed the Renewable Energy Standard last year, which requires an additional 9.5% carbon offset for each kilowatt-hour of electricity sold annually. Governor Dan McKee also signed a new deal earlier this year to procure up to 1,000 megawatts of offshore wind.
Others seem uncertain. The report sets a target of 30% electric vehicle penetration, or 86,000 registered EVs on the road, in order for the transport sector to meet its emissions reduction target by 2030. Rhode Island currently has only 6,275 registered electric vehicles.
Meanwhile, the tipping point for mass adoption of electric vehicles remains elusive. The Financial Times reported earlier this week that battery prices for electric cars have risen for the first time in more than a decade. Lithium, cobalt, nickel and other components have seen a sharp increase in prices since the start of 2021, partly due to increasing demand and tight supply.
Reducing emissions in the transportation sector is critical to meeting the goals of the Climate Act: Transportation accounts for a whopping 35% of all Rhode Island greenhouse gas emissions, according to the latest Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory compiled by the Rhode Island Department of Environmental Management.
The report also acknowledges the need to implement the projects outlined in the Transit Master Plan and Bicycle Mobility Plan, but also notes that “full funding of both TMP and BMP is currently not possible.”
The two plans, originally adopted in late 2020, provide a step-by-step guide for state planning and transportation officials to improve and improve rail, bike and bus infrastructure across the state.
But activists say both plans have been quietly shelved by state officials, who instead favor repairing and widening numerous high-profile bridges and highways and leaving everyday Rhode Islanders increasingly behind because of the transit system.
According to the EC4 report, implementing the Transmit Master Plan to increase ridership from 53,000 to 87,000 daily passenger journeys would require annual capital investment of more than $100 million over the next two decades, with operating costs rising from $130 million to $280 million over the same period. time period.
But despite funding concerns for both plans, the state has money to burn. VPRI reported last month that Rhode Island is on track to end its fiscal year with an additional $610 million in the bank, with at least $80 million stemming from last year’s budget surplus. State leaders have been silent on whether and how that money can be spent.
Other recommendations of the report include launching a plan for thermal standards to reduce the country’s reliance on fossil fuels for heating, increase market penetration of electric heating systems to 15%, reduce the amount of natural gas leakage and ensure that the gas distribution system reaches “carbon neutrality.”
EC4 said it would work to implement the action items outlined in its report, but noted that it would have to be done carefully to meet the goals in state laws.
“In the near term, the outlook for federal support in many areas looks strong, particularly on the back of the bipartisan federal infrastructure bill and the Inflation Reduction Act,” the committee wrote. “However, these federal funds will not provide the full support needed for our efforts and state funding will be required.”
EC4 is expected to vote on the report later this month. DEM officials are expected to release the GHG emissions inventory in the next few weeks.
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