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RSick commuters have been told to check timetables carefully this week, as the new timetable, with extra services, is due to be introduced on Sunday and Monday – almost coincident with a four-day strike that will stop 80% of trains across Britain from Tuesday.
Only the most optimistic gambler, or train operator forced to promise a quick fix, would have bet too much on things suddenly coming up for the railways on a cold winter weekend. However, the arrival of new timetables, officially from Sundays but with major changes to weekdays, should in theory bring back more frequent and reliable trains, especially in the north.
In practice, with strikes at Network Rail and 14 train operators set to derail services again, the success of the new timetable is unlikely to become clear until 2023. But that is a measure of how much services have declined in the first two days. The schedule change is the best opportunity for passengers to have a smooth journey in the coming months. A new schedule in May 2018 created chaotic, disruptive – and self-inflicted – chaos.
Avanti West Coast, whose woeful summer performance was underlined by figures from the rail regulator last week, circled the dates for a grand overhaul of its timetable: three trains an hour between Manchester and London for the first time since Covid, two hours from Birmingham, and north Wales. and direct trains from there.
Overall, the number of scheduled Avanti trains has increased by around 40%, from 194 to 265 on weekdays – but this is the company that has been given notice to sort things out during the six-month contract extension. According to data from the Office of Rail and Roads, things got so bad between July and September that four in 10 trains ran on time, and one in eight were canceled – still knocking thousands of services off the timetable.
Most importantly, the revised schedule should work without the need for rest-day work by drivers and crews. Avanti’s operations had run out overtime, but Goodwill’s sudden disappearance is a reminder that it was a voluntary setup.
Few expect the new timetable to be delivered in full on Monday, not least because of widespread staff sickness at this time of year. But there should still be more trains, and Avanti says that will be the foundation for a stronger recovery in January.
Another First Group operator, Transpennine Express (TPE), is also making significant changes that it hopes will make its schedule more flexible, in a period in which TPE replaced the Avanti as a byword, to the dismay of northern travellers.
TPE plans to resume trains between Manchester and Scotland via the West Coast Mainline and extend its Cleethorpes-Manchester service to Liverpool. More importantly, Network Rail planners believe that the change in timings for TPE and Northern on either side of Manchester will lead to more reliable services.
Suspicious northern politicians will believe it when they see it. TPE, like Avanti, has been hit by reluctance to work on rest days, and driver numbers are still slim after a training backlog built up during Covid.
The industry says the new timetable remains “an opportunity to provide greater certainty for passengers with a focus on improving punctuality and reliability”. But a spokesman for Rail Delivery Group added: “It is very unfortunate that the implementation of the new timetable coincides with the start of widespread industrial action which will undermine those ambitions.”
That broad rail dispute continues to rage. There is a glimpse of the possibility on Monday, when the RMT announces the result of its electronic referendum on Network Rail’s new offer. The executive has recommended it be rejected – but referendums are known to ignore the wishes of those who call them.
General secretary Mick Lynch said the leadership would be bound by the outcome, and if the offer was accepted, “that’s the end of the dispute”. The two-year offer is well below the rate of inflation, but with further increases on the lowest wage. Lynch said three quarters of RMT members at Network Rail earned less than £35,000. RMT members earning around £20,000 per year can see a cumulative increase of up to 15%.
Short strike action for Network Rail staff – an overtime ban – was lifted but is still in place for those employed by train operators, from December 18 to January 2. On some routes, such as the Chiltern Railway’s lines to Birmingham, this would effectively be as disruptive as a strike.
With the rail dispute emblematic of the broader public sector fight for fair pay, and Lynch accused of sabotaging the talks by introducing demands for bitterly-resisted driver-only operation, a quick resolution seems unlikely. In the meantime commuters face up to four weeks of disruption – including, ironically, some in Scotland and Wales, where disputes with transport authorities outside Network Rail have been settled.
The RMT strike will reduce train services by 80% on 13, 14, 16 and 17 December and 3, 4, 6 and 7 January, with some disruption the following morning. Further strikes from late December 24 to early December 27 will limit some Christmas Eve trains but will mainly affect a £100m program of engineering works – a “monumental act of loss”, according to Network Rail boss Andrew Haines, and for all dates in between, overtime restrictions will cut services by 20% overall. will decrease, more short-term cancellations are likely.
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