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Cran up, sat on the suitcase next to the door of the overflowing toilet. Two hours standing. Or sitting but stuck in purgatory (somewhere near Hatfield), as the conductor tells the passengers, “Sorry, we’re trapped.” And that’s if the train goes at all.
British railways should not be like this. In their 2019 manifesto, the Conservatives promised a “transport revolution”, although it’s doubtful they planned for that to include a near riot on the 6.33pm for Leeds.
Failed railroads, however, are more than a means to a national nuisance. Good connectivity is the lifeblood of a modern, advanced, modern economy and a powerful symbol of whether things are going in the right direction or not. Given our ongoing rail nightmare, it becomes clear that the country is headed for serious economic damage.
It is difficult to precisely quantify how much strikes, delays and dismissals cost the economy. But if the rail industry can talk about the economic benefits of new infrastructure when lobbying for funding – such as the £42bn boost to Britain from London Crossrail and £92bn from HS2 – then the same must be true, to some extent, as well. vice versa.
Train operators reckon passengers spent £133bn on food and drink, hotels, entertainment and shopping in the year before the Covid pandemic, while suggesting that if 20% of rail use switched to cars it could boost an extra 1m tonnes of emissions CO2 per year and 300 million hours of lost time due to additional congestion.
Some of those advantages are quickly disappearing. Train cancellations have hit a record high, with more than 314,000 trains either fully or partially canceled in the UK in the year to October. Rail users in the north of England bear the brunt, with Avanti West Coast, TransPennine Express and Northern the biggest culprits.
Geoff Nash, owner of the Potbank Aparthotel in Stoke-on-Trent, knows a thing or two about the costs of rail chaos. Just 10 minutes’ walk from the station on the site of the old Spode pottery shop, the disruption is costing his business thousands of pounds in canceled bookings.
“The combination of Avanti’s poor serve and hitting was devastating.” The service is so bad and so unpredictable that people don’t plan to travel.”
Recent strikes have cost two days of bookings, costing him more than £3,000. The biggest losses come when there are big events or when Stoke City play at home. He also stopped making his regular business trips to London.
“Bad service to Avanti is worse than strikes,” he says. “The website is not available if you want to go to London in two weeks. You are required to register for notifications. It’s like ‘don’t call us, we’ll call you if we’re going to drive the train’. Then there’s a crazy rush, like you’re waiting in line for a Taylor Swift concert or something. But this is really important infrastructure we’re talking about.”
Analysts at the Center for Economics and Business Research think the strikes alone could cost the economy nearly £700 million in lost output, preventing people from getting to work who can’t do their jobs from home. Meanwhile, the hospitality industry says strikes could cost the sector £1.5bn, similar to the level of disruption caused by the Omicron wave of Covid last year.
There are reasons why the impact of rail disruption could be minimized. Since the Covid pandemic, more and more people can zoom into meetings from home, while some jobs for those who can’t get to work due to train problems will be carried out by other staff or on another day.
Before the pandemic, only around 10% of people in Britain traveled by rail (including the London Underground), mostly in the capital and major cities. Almost half worked in IT, finance and professional services, so they were more likely to be able to work from home. And as anyone who drives into a big city on a weekday morning knows, most people travel by car.
However, these are no excuses for allowing the railway to collapse. People traveling less by car are vital to achieving net zero carbon, while face-to-face meetings will always remain important. Not all jobs can or should be done remotely. Even after Covid, good transport links remain a key reason for businesses and their people to choose one place or another to locate.
Talk to the companies that run the training and they would admit that there has been an economic fallout from strikes and other cancellations, at a time when they are looking to encourage more people to return to rail after Covid.
Reflecting lower passenger numbers, rail operators’ revenues are down 20% on 2019 levels, while the strike has cost up to £300m since June in lost sales. A spokesman for the Rail Delivery Group, which represents operators, said he had explained to unions the impact the “destructive and counterproductive strikes” were having on the wider economy.
“The ripple effect of the pandemic has simply made the case for long-needed reforms to work practices more urgent.”
The industry claims the reforms will help fund higher wages for an updated workforce, put the railways on a more sustainable footing and reduce reliance on taxpayer subsidies following a £16bn bailout during the Covid pandemic. For its part, the government says it is “committed to helping to reform and modernize the industry” to ensure it can offer value for money.
However, there is a strong case for more government investment, not less.
While Boris Johnson’s Equalization Plan largely sought to make empty rhetoric look solid, what the former prime minister was right to promote was the importance of better transport to break down regional inequalities. It was the winner of the 2019 vote, resulting in zero changes.
Where Johnson got it wrong was to focus on investing in physical infrastructure, without thinking enough about what really makes a good service: its people. If by “modernisation” rail operators and the government mean inadequate pay, fewer staff and unreasonable changes to working conditions, they clearly fail to recognize the importance of the railways to Britain.
Outdated transport ideas need to be re-examined. Instead of letting the rail network wither on the vine while it pours more money into road construction, the government needs to come up with real solutions. More investment in transport and people is key. Without it, there are huge economic costs.
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