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Thank you, Mr. Chairman. At last week’s ministerial council, Russia’s ambassador gave familiar misrepresentations about the confrontation. I want to highlight again the irony of a country that invaded Georgia in 2008, illegally annexed Crimea in 2014, and then launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24 this year.
Since that fateful day, the Kremlin and our Russian colleagues in this room have tried to distract from the failures on the battlefield with a campaign of lies, threats and propaganda. They have concocted increasingly ludicrous false claims and allegations of epic scale that do not stand up to the slightest degree of scrutiny. But no amount of threats and propaganda can hide the fact that Ukraine is winning this war, nor can it hide the terrible phenomenon of atrocities and destruction in the areas from which Russian forces have retreated.
Against the backdrop of the continuing onslaught of disinformation, it is perhaps timely to consider what the past nine months have shown: Putin made a serious miscalculation when he chose to invade a sovereign neighbor.
On the ground, the Russian Battalion Tactical Group (BTG) concept, a staple of Russia’s military doctrine for more than 10 years, has proved a failure. Poor logistics, agility, training, equipment, maintenance, discipline and leadership all contributed to the failure. Over the past three months, Russian forces in Ukraine have largely stopped deploying the BTG concept.
In the air, Russia has failed to achieve air superiority. In recent months, the number of sorties conducted by Russian strategic combat aircraft over Ukraine has decreased significantly. Russian aircraft are now flying perhaps ten missions per day, compared with a peak of up to 300 per day in March 2022. It has now lost over 60 fixed wing aircraft in combat.
At sea, Russia’s failure to mount an effective force defense has left its Black Sea fleet dangerously exposed with disastrous consequences. The vulnerability of its ships and submarines is evident from their significantly reduced operational footprint.
In response to their military failure, Putin has sought to punish the Ukrainian people. He and his military leadership’s attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure are aimed at spreading terror and depriving families of shelter, light and heat as winter sets in. They are particularly brutal acts of vengeance, resulting in widespread humanitarian suffering throughout Ukraine. However, the effectiveness of Russia’s attack on Ukraine’s electricity distribution grid as a strategy is likely unclear given that Russia has already expended a large portion of its viable missiles against strategic targets.
Putin and his military leaders have also doubled down on their failed strategy of blunt-force attrition warfare. He and his generals have sent thousands of Russian citizens to their deaths, poorly trained, poorly equipped and poorly led. More continue to be sent to the battlefield to provide numbers and mass rather than fighters and effective leadership.
But the failures of Putin’s appalling entrepreneurship are becoming increasingly apparent to the Russian people. Recent polls suggest that Russian public support for so-called “special military operations” is declining significantly. Data purportedly collected by Russia’s Federal Protective Service showed that 55 percent of Russians favored peace talks with Ukraine, with only 25 percent favoring a continuation of the war. This contrasts with a poll in April 2022 where nearly 80 percent of Russians claimed to support the conflict.
Persistent and institutionally poor decision-making by the Kremlin is having a dire effect on the Russian people – more needless deaths; more grieving families; more defeat; more demoralized soldiers; more dissatisfaction; And more isolation. Putin is creating a legacy that millions of young Russians did not choose and voted for, but will be forced to bear the cost for years to come.
Mr. Chairman, yesterday marked Ukrainian Armed Forces Day. It was the 285th day for the brave men and women of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as they fought to protect and defend their homeland from a ruthless and barbaric invader. We do not underestimate the continuing threat posed by the Russian Federation but, in time, there will be cause for celebration for Ukraine. Ukraine will continue to demonstrate their steadfast courage, determination and enduring moral strength as they fight to further liberate their homeland. Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence will be fully restored. The UK and the international community will remain steadfast in our support – however long we stand with Ukraine. thank you
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