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As we enter the final months of 2022, there are reasons to think that it has turned out to be a better year than expected for those who believe in the West and liberal values. Those two related threats—democracy at home and authoritarianism abroad—have both taken a significant hit.
It wasn’t that long ago that the US appeared to have lost its will to engage with the outside world (see the humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021); Europe has shown no sign of filling the void. China, meanwhile, was growing in international influence, able to make strategic decisions unfettered by public opinion. Russia, apparently, remains in long-term decline, a regional superpower and a threat to our security, while the Iranian regime remains internally secure and externally hostile.
The limits of authoritarianism, however, are clearly exposed. Russia’s failure in Ukraine stems from rampant corruption, an unwillingness to speak truth to power, and the promotion of compliant intermediaries. Vladimir Putin sees the West as decadent, soft and lacking in military virtues but it is the Russian military that has been declared inept. This would not have happened in a more open and questioning society.
The Iranian regime is not safe. The values of its theocratic leadership appear out of touch with large parts of the country – especially, but not exclusively, the young, well-educated, urban population. The mullahs have seen liberal insurgencies in the past but it seems only a matter of time before fundamental change takes place.
The same cannot be said with as much confidence as China, but the recent protests are, nevertheless, significant and unmatched since 1989 and Tiananmen Square. President Xi Jinping will likely win but his zero-covid strategy and vaccine nationalism are causing serious trouble and weakening his hold.
The lockdown is causing significant economic problems but there are long-term problems to be faced. If China is to avoid falling into the middle-income trap—where it reaches a certain point of economic growth and then stagnates—it must move from a manufacturing-based economy to one in which consumption and services play a greater role. Such an economy would benefit from a society that is more creative and individualistic – inconsistent with where China wants to be taken.
If authoritarianism appears to be crumbling elsewhere, populism appears to be collapsing in the West as well. In France, Emmanuel Macron was comfortably re-elected while Republicans who refused to accept the legitimacy of President Joe Biden’s 2020 election victory paid the price in the midterms. Donald Trump isn’t done yet but he’s certainly diminished.
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[See also: Emmanuel Macron: the man who would be king]
Not everything that has happened in recent months has been positive – the new Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, leads a party with fascist roots – but populism seems to have peaked. Serious economic challenges have generally seen a move towards a more serious, managerial approach to government.
The UK is no exception. Boris Johnson was no dictator (he deserves credit for his approach to Ukraine) but a populist willing to undermine our institutions if it was to his advantage. His immediate successor, Liz Truss, shared his distrust of institutions and economic conservatism, and came to fruition very quickly. Market credibility became paramount, resulting in a return to adulthood, first with Jeremy Hunt as Chancellor and then with Rishi Sunak as Prime Minister.
Sunak v Starmer is a big improvement on the options put before the British people in 2019 but the worry – from a UK perspective – is that if populism peaked in the late 2010s, it is here that the damage is visible. To survive the longest.
I wrote last week about how the public seem to have changed their view on Brexit, not just regretting the 2016 decision but actively wanting to rejoin the EU. This outlook is likely to strengthen over the next two years, with the UK forecast to grow slower than all other G20 economies with the exception of Russia. However, our political leaders have concluded that a prerequisite for political success is to accept the 2016 result as interpreted by the winners of the 2019 general election – that Brexit means a hard Brexit.
Over the past few days, we’ve told Keir Starmer Mail on Sunday Opposing freedom of movement is a red line for them The Sunday Times It was said that Rishi Sunak would refuse to compromise on the Northern Ireland Protocol, and press ahead with up to 4,000 EU law repeals despite trade uncertainty.
The West faces many challenges – economic, demographic and geopolitical – but 2022 brings us some reasons to be cheerful. The invasion of Ukraine is a humanitarian tragedy but it has strengthened our resolve and weakened the adversary. Instability in Russia, Iran and China brings great risks but offers hope for a more harmonious future. Public representatives are being exposed for not having answers to public concerns.
This optimism, however, must be tempered in the case of the UK. The 2016 Brexit vote – perhaps the year of peak democracy – may become a passing fad as a near-permanent feature of our politics. Putting the consequences of populism behind us may be a more challenging undertaking for the UK than elsewhere.
[See also: Labour’s landslide in Chester shows voters have an appetite for change]
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