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Since their clash in Galvan in June 2020, India and China have engaged each other in several rounds of de-escalation and withdrawal talks; however, the job is not usual. Despite India’s unease, China continued to build new settlements in border areas. Although recent incursions and confrontations have been in the western sector, namely the Ladakh region, expectations of further incursions can also be found in relatively calmer border areas such as Arunachal Pradesh. Before Galvan, if any Indian rangers mistakenly crossed into Tibet or vice versa, the border guards did not disturb them and, after some routine questioning, allowed them to return to their own lands. However, after Galvan, such inadvertent transitions are treated with deep suspicion and dealt with harshly.
From China’s perspective, there is reason enough to launch a short and swift military adventure on the border. Bruce Riedel, director of the Brookings Intelligence Project and former CIA officer, suggests in his book JFK’s Forgotten Crisis: Tibet, the CIA, and the Sino-Indian War yes china’s top management, i.e. Mao Zedong and Premier Zhao Ziyang, were angry with Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and launched a war in 1962 to “humiliate” Nehru and reduce his growing popularity and stature. Although India could not match the military and economic power of world powers such as the United States and the Soviet Union, under Nehru’s leadership it quickly emerged as an influential geopolitical actor and leader of the non-aligned world.
Likewise, in the current scenario, China may repeat something similar to 1962, as under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India is re-emerging as a global player. Under Modi’s leadership, India has shown firm resistance to China in its salami-style border incursions at Depsang, Doklam and Galwan and has stuck firmly to its ideological stand of withdrawal from all areas. It also continued to build vital road infrastructure in the border areas. Internally, Modi’s government has taken tough decisions such as revoking the special status of Kashmir; surgical strikes inside Pakistan-occupied Kashmir; and airstrikes on terrorist camps in Balakot, deep inside Pakistani territory. The Modi government further banned Chinese internet-based applications and extremist groups such as PFI and Jamaat-i-Islami. Modi’s government has further curbed Chinese funding and influence in think tanks, media and universities and tightened its grip on questionable non-profit institutions and activist organizations by subjecting them to strict legal scrutiny and reducing their foreign funding. All these measures have seriously undermined China’s intelligence capabilities and assets in India, which could be used to sabotage any parliamentary bill, critical defense project, infrastructure project and cyber security.
India’s renewed focus on self-reliance in the economic sphere and infrastructural development is likely to harm China’s economic and commercial interests in the future. With rapid infrastructure development, India can become a competitive destination for global manufacturing giants. Also, the rigid government oversight and uncertainties that global corporate giants face in China, and the growing mistrust of the Western world towards China, make India an even more favorable destination.
Externally, Modi has taken an independent and principled stance on global geopolitical issues such as the war in Ukraine, forged strong ties with West Asia and assumed the G20 presidency in 2023. Also, India’s growing relationship with the United States will ultimately strengthen the Quad, China’s nemesis. All this makes China extremely uncomfortable and afraid of a stronger India. So, Beijing would not want BJP led by Modi to come back to power in 2024. If Modi wins the 2024 elections, his political position will be much stronger and it will be extremely difficult to root him out for at least a decade. In such a long term, he will implement a series of structural and fundamental reforms in governance, education, economy, defense, internal security, diplomacy and intelligence services, transforming India into a major global military and economic player that opposes China’s global ambitions.
My informed interlocutors in intelligence circles suggest that given China’s ambitions for world power, it becomes imperative to reduce India’s growing global geopolitical footprint, which, in China’s perception, cannot happen if India has strong political leadership. Modi’s strong domestic popularity and endless electoral victories can only be halted by a humiliating defeat in a military conflict, resulting in heavy casualties and loss of territory. Modi’s appeal among Indian voters is his strongman image, and that can only be shattered by an embarrassing military debacle. Such a humiliating defeat will also provide much-needed fuel to a demoralized and distracted opposition, which is desperate for trouble to dent Modi’s appeal and credibility.
Another factor tempting China to consider a quick military offensive is that the United States is unlikely to wholeheartedly support India in the event of a military conflict given the current weakening of India-US ties due to India’s stance on the war in Ukraine. There is no military alliance between India and the United States, nor has the United States made any overt declarations or commitments in defense of India, as in the case of Taiwan. Engaging the United States in any military or naval confrontation by invading Taiwan may involve China paying a heavy price. The failure of the Russian gamble in Ukraine and the unification of the entire Western bloc against Russia will discourage China from undertaking any such adventure in Taiwan. However, military initiatives in the Himalayan region will not provoke such a massive global response.
In addition, a military defeat for India will send a strong message to South Asia and the powers beyond about China’s proven military superiority over India. Currently, India may not be seen as an equal to China; however, New Delhi is seen as a rising power challenging Beijing’s influence in South Asia and, of late, to some extent in the global scenario. However, Galvan, instead of improving the image of China, spoiled it. Various foreign and independent sources have suggested that forty-five to sixty Chinese soldiers were killed by Indian troops, leaving China humiliated and panting to regain its lost image. Besides, a military adventure on the border can be a good diversion from internal protests across the country. Therefore, Delhi must be alert and ready for a sudden military adventure in the Himalayas.
The Gamble May Backfire
The latest clash took place on December 9 in the Tawang region of Arunachal Pradesh, India’s easternmost state claimed by China. Around 300 Chinese soldiers contacted the LAC (Line of Actual Control), which was met with stiff resistance by Indian soldiers. Both countries have different perceptions of the LAC, the undefined border between India and China, which China uses for frequent incursions into areas claimed by India. Notably, Arunachal Pradesh was the site of the 1962 invasion. Most of the recent conflicts have been in the western sector, namely the Ladakh region, except for the December 2021 conflict in the Tawang region. However, China’s military strategy is deeply rooted in deception and the creation of smoke screens. As for the underlying motives behind these repeated incursions, it can be argued that either China is testing India’s resolve and preparedness or simply creating a distraction from the force’s aggressive stance in Ladakh and Arunachal, and planning a real attack in another LAC region, which now it wasn’t thinking. and Indians unimaginable.
However, Chinese gambling can backfire for various reasons. India 2022 is not the India of 1962. The Indian debacle of 1962 was the result of bad political-military decision-making at the highest level and lack of ammunition, ration supplies and winter clothing. This time, the Indian Army is well prepared, equipped, battle hardened and much more professional and disciplined. And finally, given the growing Indo-US ties, the Western bloc led by the US (if not for lofty moralistic reasons, then purely pragmatic geopolitical calculations) will stand by India. The entire western propaganda juggernaut will favor India against China. Even the Russians will not be able to openly support China because of their old ties with India. Perhaps China’s gamble in the Himalayas can become a golden opportunity to stop China’s revisionist and expansionist ambitions.
Abhinav Pandia is the founder and executive director of the Usanas Foundation, an India-based geopolitical and security think tank, and the author Radicalization in India: A Survey. His second book, Terrorist financing in Kashmir will be released soon. He is an MPA from Cornell University, USA.
Image: Reuters.
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