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Analysis
07:00
Europe is facing a long and dark winter
by Philip Cunliffe
Credit: Getty
Finland is now the first western country to admit that it will suffer from power outages this winter, while Austria is getting ready food distribution networks which can function in case of power failure. Here in Great Britain, and in typical privatized British state fashion, there is a constant dripping of the National Grid report on how they prepare for possible power outages. In this way, the population is softened by the possibility of a blackout, without any elected leader or minister being forced to take political responsibility or make an official statement on behalf of the nation for this disaster.
In addition to exposing the dire state of energy infrastructure across Western Europe, the energy crisis showed that the much-vaunted wind and solar power was only viable with a ready supply of gas to compensate for inclement weather. Even France, traditionally energy secure due to its large stockpile of nuclear power, is caught off guard by repairs take longer than expected on its older fleet of reactors.
Even the interconnector network on which European countries have so far depended to divert energy from areas of surplus to areas of deficit stands exposed: interconnectors work well only when countries are not demanding energy all at once. Britain, Germany, Slovakia and Norway are considering the possibility of having to prioritize their own energy needs over those of their neighbors for the coming winter, tearing down the pillars of the interconnector system. The perversity of all this is that it is self-imposed, artificial scarcity.
This artificial scarcity comes in two forms: ideological and geopolitical. Given the storage problems that still plague solar and wind power, the fact that decarbonisation has raced ahead of what is technically feasible reflects the ideological fervor behind it. At the same time, Belgium, Britain and Germany governments have destroyed their national capacity to produce low-carbon nuclear power. In order for energy production to be systematically reduced on this scale, while keeping homes warm and cities lit at night, it depended on a constant supply of gas from Russia.
But since the sanctions on Russian gas, that is no longer possible. Although there appears to be a welcome the new consensus growing in favor of nuclear power, it will take years for Europe to recover from the artificial scarcity imposed by its reliance on renewables. In the meantime, however, we could loosen the vice by easing sanctions on Russia and letting the gas flow again. Sanctions have nothing to commend them. The siege effect of sanctions forces besieged nations to join their leaders.
At the same time, new black markets and sanctions-busting efforts are strengthening the clientelistic and patronage networks on which authoritarian regimes such as Putin’s depend. Certainly, the sanctions did not stop Putin’s war machine from grinding on. Now the tragedy is aggravated by the fact that the current sanctions are harming the West more than Russia.
With President Joe Biden suggesting that he would be open to negotiations with the Russian president, now would be a good time to return gas to Europe. The truth is that waving Ukrainian flags will not warm us this winter. If Europe is to avoid a new dark age of rising energy bills, deindustrialization and blackouts, we must start by ending the sanctions regime against Russia.
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