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Yesterday, better-than-expected CPI inflation data sparked a favorable rally in Indian markets with IT stocks finally snapping their 7-day losing streak and PSU banks extending gains further. The Sensex remained above the 62,500 mark and the Nifty 50 held above 18,600 – indicating the beginning of a recovery from the sell-off of the past few days.
The Sensex rose by 402.73 points or 0.65% to close at 62,533.30. Meanwhile, the Nifty 50 settled at 18,608, up 110.85 points or 0.6% on Tuesday. After seven consecutive days of decline, both the BSE and NSE IT indices rose by over 1.1% each. Nifty PSU banks rose over 3.8%, while private banking, financials, autos, and equity stocks were also notable trendsetters. Overall, Bank Nifty gained almost 238 points. Also, in the interbank forex market, the Indian rupee fell to end at 82.8050 against the US currency compared to the previous day’s close of 82.53.
Top bulls are IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance, Infosys, HCL Tech, M&M, TCS, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Finserve, and Ultratech Cement are top gainers.
US inflation data late yesterday came in at around 7.1% – lower than expected The consensus is 7.3%. This brings a sign of relief among investors as they gauge a 50 bps increase from the Fed in the upcoming policy – which may be lower than the three consecutive 75 bps rate hikes in the past policy.
In early deals on Wednesday, broader Asian counterparts such as Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, and Australia witnessed gains, along with U.S. stock futures. However, the stocks of mainland China are fluctuating. Today, among the most awaited key factors is the US Fed’s stance on inflation going forward, the economic outlook, and their rate results. Most expected a rise in Asian stocks after the easing of the US inflation print.
Meanwhile, the Sensex and Nifty 50 have already reacted positively after India’s consumer price index (CPI) inflation fell to an 11-month low of 5.88% in November – the first time it has fallen below the RBI’s upper tolerance limit since December last year. US inflation data and expectations of a smaller rate hike from the Fed are likely to drive sentiment today.
Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services said, “The lower-than-expected November CPI inflation rate in the US which came in at 7.1% YoY and only 0.1% MoM confirms market expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates by just 50bp today. The agreed Fed funds rate is currently below 5%, which is market positive.”
However, Vijayakumar added, since a recession in the US in 2023 is a highly probable event, the market is unlikely to rise. In India, the bank index, and within the bank index of PSU banks, is the strongest segment and this can continue to be resilient. HDFC twins show strength. The recovery in the IT sector has more gas to go. Continued FII buying is another positive.
For Wednesday, strategist Geojit said the Nifty is unlikely to break out of the 18,400-18,800 range and sustain at higher levels. He added, “High valuations tend to shut down protests.”
At the same time, Mr. Mitul Shah, Head of Research – Institutional at Reliance Securities said, “The market is likely to see the gap widen; SGX Nifty is up 203 points compared to the previous Nifty close. Asian markets are trading in the green; Nikkei is up 0.7% while the Heng Seng is up 0.1%.
Market from:
Shilpa Rout – Derivatives Lead Analyst, Prabhudas Lilladher said, “NIFTY week options chain expiration witnessed PE writers increase their positions at 18500PE followed by 18600PE- more than 80 lakh ams 77 lakh OI respectively. CE writers maximum is 00 crest – maximum 1900 shares OI. Overall stocks, with CE unwinding alos are seen across almost immediate attack at 1860 PCR_OI0 0.8, which if increased will see a strong move towards the 19000 area again.”
In the Nifty Bank, Rout added, “The weekly options chain reflects attacks on the PE side adding more than 20 million shares, with the highest increase seen at 43500PE – almost 30 million shares OI. Immediate support, the CE writer moves at 44000 strikes, followed by 45000CE, so the data created reflects the increased momentum to continue to a new round of highs.”
Here are the intraday calls by experts for Wednesday:
Vaishali Parekh, Vice President – Technical Research, Prabhudas Lilladher:
– Buy Naukri (Info Edge) at ₹4160 with stoploss of ₹The price is 4100 baht ₹4280
– Buy Bajaj Finance at ₹6620 with stoploss of ₹6530 for the target price of ₹6800
Anuj Gupta, Vice President – Research at IIFL Securities
– Buy Yes Bank for stop loss ₹16 and the target price of ₹30
– Buy Suzlon Energy with stop loss ₹8 for the target price of ₹13
Ravi Singh, Vice President and Head of Research, Share India
– Buy Infosys at ₹1570 for the target price of ₹1600 with a stop loss ₹1550
– Buy Tata Power at ₹220 for the target price of ₹235 with stop loss of ₹210
Sumeet Bagadia, Managing Director of Choice Broking
– Buy SBI life insurance with stop loss ₹1260 for the target price of ₹1300-1320
– Buy Cipla with stop loss ₹The price is 1090 baht ₹1130-1140
Ravi Singhal, CEO, GCL
– Buy Federal Bank at ₹136 with stop loss of ₹135 for the target price of ₹144
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations stated above are those of individual analysts or brokerage firms, not of Mint. We recommend that investors check with certified professionals before making any investment decisions.
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